AVIAN FLU: Governments stock up with vaccine that doesn't work

Governments around the world, panicked by the threat of an avian flu pandemic, are ordering the vaccine by the truckload. The UK government has placed an order for 14.6 million doses, while the US government is buying 20 million doses.

This is marvellous business for Roche, of course, although it has overlooked to remind clients that Tamiflu won't do a thing to fight avian flu. Avian flu has yet to mutate into a virus that is communicable between humans, so an effective vaccine can be developed only when this has happened. In reality, a virus mutates one million times more frequently than DNA and so a vaccine is effective only against last year's virus.

Health officials in Canada seem to be talking some sense. Its federal health minister Ujjal Dosanjh has already gone on record to state that Tamiflu is useless against a flu that doesn't exist, and officials are urging Canadians to stop buying private supplies of the stuff. Nonetheless, the Canadian government is ignoring the views of its health minister, and is busy stockpiling Tamiflu along with the rest of the world, and for good measure is also hoarding up with supplies of the other flu vaccines Relenza (zanamivir) and amantadine, which are equally useless.

Meanwhile, Roche is counting the dollar bills. Sales of Tamiflu this year are expected to reach £522m ($925m), three times last year's totals. Its share price will doubtlessly soar, avian-like.